Foreign states use various methods to further their own interests and influence. They use hybrid measures of a political, information-related, military and economic nature. These measures can be used individually or they can be combined in different ways, both openly and covertly. Hybrid measures are typically used to put pressure on decision-makers, divide populations and undermine people’s trust in public institutions. Hybrid measures can also be used during an escalating crisis to set the stage for one's own military operations or to prevent/delay the opponent's lines of action. Read more about hybrid threats
Physical sabotage is part of the hybrid measures used by Russia in particular against its opponents. Physical sabotage means deliberately damaging or destroying, for example, equipment or facilities.
The threat from physical sabotage is increasing
PET assesses that Russia is showing an increased willingness to use hybrid measures against and in Europe and that this has resulted in an increased threat of physical sabotage being carried out in Denmark.The purpose of physical sabotage
PET assesses that one of the purposes of the Russian activities is to stop specific supplies for Ukraine and to create insecurity and fear in western societies of a further escalation of the conflict, thus impairing the continued political, economic and military support for Ukraine among populations and politicians in Europe.In the first half of 2024, there have been several examples of how individuals linked to Russia have been responsible for various acts of physical sabotage - including arson and gross vandalism - in a number of European countries. However, PET is not currently aware of specific instances of Russian physical sabotage in Denmark.
What are the targets?
The threat from Russian sabotage activities is directed towards a wide range of targets. PET assesses that Russia recruits helpers and proxy groups to select targets and carry out the sabotage. Thus, Russian target selection carries an element of opportunism and the individual targets are not necessarily meticulously chosen by Russia.Some of the targets that have been hit can be linked to the support for Ukraine, while other targets are civilian or of a more symbolic nature. For example, charges have been brought against the possible perpetrators of arson attacks on warehouses. Furthermore, a number of European countries have officially accused Russia of arson and attempted arson against, for example, factories, a shopping centre and a department store, and investigative steps have been taken based on suspicion of attempted arson against public transport facilities raised by the authorities.
The Russian intelligence services regularly collect information concerning critical infrastructure in western countries, including Denmark, and it is likely that Russia also has plans ready for sabotage against critical infrastructure in, for example, Denmark which can be activated if a conflict escalates. Russia’s increased willingness to take risks when it comes to sabotage means that Danish critical infrastructure may become the target of sabotage in isolated cases. At present, PET sees no indications of Danish critical infrastructure being a separate prioritized target of Russian sabotage. It is PET’s assessment that Russia currently has no intention of causing extensive damage to Danish critical infrastructure. However, the threat picture may change at very short notice if the relationship with Russia further deteriorates.