Assessment of the Terrorist threat to Denmark 2021
Centre for Terror Analysis (CTA) has prepared a new “Assessment of the Terrorist threat to Denmark” for 2021. The terror threat to Denmark remains significant.
29 March 2022
In the 2021 assessment of the terror threat to Denmark, CTA assesses that the terrorist threat to Denmark remains at the level of significant and that militant Islamists continue to pose the primary terror threat to Denmark. The threat mainly emanates from people sympathizing with and inspired by foreign militant Islamist terrorist groups, particularly Islamic State (IS) and al-Qaida (AQ).
CTA notes that incidents seen in 2020, in Denmark and abroad, which were perceived as insults to Islam have added to the renewed focus on past and current cases of insults in Denmark. Thus, CTA assesses that cases of insults still have considerable potential as a motivating factor for militant Islamists.
“We assess that the added focus on cases of perceived insults during the past year may generally contribute to increasing the terrorist threat to Denmark and Danish interests abroad,” says Michael Hamann, Head of CTA, while emphasizing that “the cases may develop very differently, as some cases are overlooked, while others receive considerable attention from militant Islamists”.
CTA assesses that the terrorist threat to Denmark from right-wing extremists remains at the level of general.
“We are highly alert to the threat from right-wing extremists. The right-wing extremist threat primarily emanates from individuals and small groups which typically meet, become radicalized and find inspiration in right-wing extremist networks and virtual communities,” assesses Michael Hamann.
At the other end of the political spectrum, CTA assesses that the terrorist threat from left-wing extremists in Denmark remains at the level of limited.
According to CTA, a number of other factors may also affect the terror threat to Denmark.
“We have recently seen trends in Denmark and internationally which may impact our assessment of the terrorist threat to Denmark. This includes certain conspiracy theories and anti-state movements, which are not illegal but may contain violent threat potential that, subject to a legal assessment, could be characterized as terrorism,” says Michael Hamann.
The Danish Security and Intelligence Service (PET) underlines that, regardless of the area and level of the terror threat, terrorism can still strike suddenly and with no prior intelligence assessments or indications. PET continuously works to prevent terrorism in cooperation with national and international partners.
The COVID-19 pandemic and its influence on the terror threat to Denmark
CTA assesses that the COVID-19 pandemic is not an essential driver of terrorism in Denmark and that the pandemic, and the way it is handled, has not in itself changed the intent and capacity of militant Islamists or political extremists to commit terrorist attacks in Denmark. However, CTA considers it likely that the COVID-19 pandemic has been a contributing factor in strengthening existing anti-state narratives among right-wing extremists in Denmark.